Should I Go For It?

How do you decide to "chance" taking a long shot over water if you really think you can make it, or whether to take the safe way out and lay up? The answer lies in how honest you are with yourself about your mechanical abilities and the risk reward ratio for that particular shot.

If you are good enough to make it over the water 70% of the time and you gain a stroke each time you make it, you are up by 7 strokes. However, the 30% of the times you hit the water if it costs you 2 strokes because off the penalty, you are down 6 strokes. The net result is a 1 stroke advantage if your success probability holds up over the 10 times you go for it.

However, it is important to look at your risk reward ratio before you decide to go for it. If you are trailing by one shot on the last hole, you may decide to go for it because, if you make it and gain a stroke, you greatly increase your chance of forcing a play off and winning. On the other hand, if you are in a 5 way tie for second place and land in the water, it could cost you of bundle of prize money if you are playing on tour. It could even cost you your tour card if it keeps you from making the money list at the end of the year. In this scenario, you may decide to play safe and lay up. It's up to you to decide to go for the glory or to play safe for the money so you can keep your tour card.

The mental aspect of this strategy is very important. If you do have the mechanical ability to make it and you doubt yourself or what to do, you upset your brain's chemistry causing your performance to diminish and increase the chance that you will end up in the water. So if you decide to go for it, do it with complete confidence and be willing to live with the probabilities of your mechanical ability and the consequences of your decision..

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